Public forecast documentation
SOL price forecast availability
Current forecast values belong to the external live product. This page does not present an old observation as today's SOL forecast.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Where to find the current SOL forecast
Visit the external live product for its presently published SOL value, issue time, target time, probability, and interval. Availability there is independent of this historical explanation page.
Before interpreting horizons, intervals, or the external handoff, read the forecast methodology and metric definitions. To understand what the available evidence can and cannot establish, read forecast accuracy evidence and limits.
View current SOL forecastSetup observed in the audit
The September 10, 2026 snapshot observed four forecast horizon labels — 6h, 12h, 24h, and 48h — issued on a six-hour cadence. This is audit context, not a claim about a current production schedule.
- Forecast horizons
- 6h, 12h, 24h, and 48h labels were observed.
- Issue cadence
- Six hours in the audit observation.
- Evaluation period
- Observed target span 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z; not a prespecified evaluation window.
- Sample counts
- 56 total SOL forecast rows; 40 resolved rows.
Resolved rows by horizon: 6h n=13, 12h n=12, 24h n=9, 48h n=6. These are observed counts in the retained capture, not a complete-history claim.
Because 12h, 24h, and 48h horizons extend beyond a six-hour issue cadence, their evaluation windows can overlap. Adjacent observations should therefore not be treated as independent without row-level timestamps.
Probability, direction, and ties
A directional probability is a number from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%) that represents the forecast probability for the defined direction. The directional Brier formula compares that probability with a binary outcome, using p for the probability and y ∈ {0, 1} for the recorded outcome.
The supplied audit does not document the production resolution rule for an exactly unchanged price or other tie. This page therefore does not assign ties to “up” or “down,” and does not infer an undocumented tie convention.
It also does not document a production threshold for converting a probability into a directional class, so no threshold is inferred here.
Data provenance and export status
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Citation-ready public export status: NOT READY. The retained historical evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows, with resolved horizon counts of 6h n=13, 12h n=12, 24h n=9, 48h n=6 and observed target span 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z. These are point-in-time observations, not an immutable issued-and-resolved archive, complete history, or prespecified evaluation window. A current public feed may expose rows, but it is not an immutable versioned research archive. Metrics calculated from a changing feed are not automatically comparable to this dated snapshot. A research export would need versioned records with forecast ID, asset and venue, UTC issue and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, scoring-rule version, and content hash. No research export is available from these pages.
The existing Dataset JSON-LD preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.