Public forecast documentation
Direction Brier score explained
For a defined binary event, the Brier contribution is (p − y)²: p is the event probability and y is its recorded 0-or-1 outcome. The supplied audit does not establish how unchanged-price ties are coded.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Formula, range, and baseline
Brier = (1 / n) × Σᵢ₌₁ⁿ (pᵢ − yᵢ)²
For a binary directional outcome, each squared error is between 0 and 1, so the Brier score ranges from 0 to 1. Lower is better: zero means the stated probabilities matched the binary outcomes exactly, while larger values mean larger probability errors.
A constant 50% forecast has (0.5 − y)² = 0.25 for every binary outcome, so its score is exactly 0.25. For the shared event and scoring context, the audit observed 0.250491 — slightly higher than that reference. This comparison is contextual and does not demonstrate directional predictive superiority.
For the shared event definitions, cadence, and overlap caveats, see the forecast methodology and metric definitions.
| Metric | Value | Sample N | Evaluation period | Interpretation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direction Brier score | 0.250491 | n=40 (retained resolved SOL rows) | Observed target span: 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z; not a prespecified evaluation window | The retained 40 resolved rows reproduce 0.2504913345, displayed here as 0.250491; this is slightly above the 0.25 reference for a constant 50% binary forecast. | This row-derived snapshot is contextual evidence, not a demonstration of directional skill or predictive superiority. |
Probability, direction, and ties
A directional probability is a number from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%) that represents the forecast probability for the defined direction. The directional Brier formula compares that probability with a binary outcome, using p for the probability and y ∈ {0, 1} for the recorded outcome.
The supplied audit does not document the production resolution rule for an exactly unchanged price or other tie. This page therefore does not assign ties to “up” or “down,” and does not infer an undocumented tie convention.
It also does not document a production threshold for converting a probability into a directional class, so no threshold is inferred here.
What this score does not show
The audited Brier value does not provide a directional hit rate, a per-horizon Brier breakdown, a confidence interval, a non-overlapping holdout comparison, or a profitability result. Calibration and Brier scoring are related probability-quality questions but are not interchangeable with generic “accuracy.”
Data provenance and export status
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Citation-ready public export status: NOT READY. The retained historical evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows, with resolved horizon counts of 6h n=13, 12h n=12, 24h n=9, 48h n=6 and observed target span 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z. These are point-in-time observations, not an immutable issued-and-resolved archive, complete history, or prespecified evaluation window. A current public feed may expose rows, but it is not an immutable versioned research archive. Metrics calculated from a changing feed are not automatically comparable to this dated snapshot. A research export would need versioned records with forecast ID, asset and venue, UTC issue and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, scoring-rule version, and content hash. No research export is available from these pages.
The existing Dataset JSON-LD preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.