Public forecast documentation
80% forecast confidence-band performance
An 80% band is an interval intended to contain outcomes at a stated long-run rate under the method's assumptions. It is not an 80% certainty guarantee.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Coverage is not certainty
The audit observed 95% coverage for bands labeled 80%. Coverage well above the nominal target can indicate conservative or overly wide intervals. Interval width, sample count, results by horizon, and non-overlapping evaluation are needed before judging usefulness.
| Metric | Observed | Reference | Careful interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction Brier score | 0.250491 | 0.25 for a constant 50% probability | Slightly worse than the no-skill 50% baseline; no demonstrated directional skill. |
| Nominal 80% band coverage | 95% | 80% nominal coverage | Higher coverage may indicate bands were overly wide; this is not 95% predictive accuracy. |
Data provenance and recommended public export
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Recommended source: a versioned, downloadable JSON and CSV dataset at the live product, with immutable issued and resolved rows, UTC timestamps, source venue, sample count n, scoring formulas, model version, and a content hash. The Dataset JSON-LD on this page preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.