Public forecast documentation
Historical resolved forecasts
No row-level resolved forecasts were included in the supplied audit. This page therefore shows no invented predictions, prices, timestamps, or outcomes.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Row-level archive unavailable in the audit
The evidence supplied for this implementation contains aggregate observations only. No table of individual issued and resolved forecasts was provided, so presenting example records would be simulation rather than history.
| Metric | Observed | Reference | Careful interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction Brier score | 0.250491 | 0.25 for a constant 50% probability | Slightly worse than the no-skill 50% baseline; no demonstrated directional skill. |
| Nominal 80% band coverage | 95% | 80% nominal coverage | Higher coverage may indicate bands were overly wide; this is not 95% predictive accuracy. |
Data provenance and recommended public export
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Recommended source: a versioned, downloadable JSON and CSV dataset at the live product, with immutable issued and resolved rows, UTC timestamps, source venue, sample count n, scoring formulas, model version, and a content hash. The Dataset JSON-LD on this page preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.