Public forecast documentation
SiCierto public forecasting
A transparent guide to the external forecast product, the dated evidence available in the audit, and the limits that matter when reading its statistics.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Current product vs. audit snapshot
Current forecasts are published on the separate forecast product. SiCierto's main app does not have a configured, authenticated upstream feed for that external product, so it does not quietly substitute the distinct local worker database or label cached audit values as live.
Open the actual live forecast product| Metric | Observed | Reference | Careful interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction Brier score | 0.250491 | 0.25 for a constant 50% probability | Slightly worse than the no-skill 50% baseline; no demonstrated directional skill. |
| Nominal 80% band coverage | 95% | 80% nominal coverage | Higher coverage may indicate bands were overly wide; this is not 95% predictive accuracy. |
Data provenance and recommended public export
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Recommended source: a versioned, downloadable JSON and CSV dataset at the live product, with immutable issued and resolved rows, UTC timestamps, source venue, sample count n, scoring formulas, model version, and a content hash. The Dataset JSON-LD on this page preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.