Direction Brier score
0.250491
Compared with the 0.25 constant 50% reference; not a superiority claim.
Public forecast documentation
SiCierto public forecasting
A transparent guide to the external forecast product, the dated evidence available in the audit, and the limits that matter when reading its statistics.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
Current product vs. audit snapshot
Current forecasts are published on the separate forecast product. SiCierto's main app does not have a configured, authenticated upstream feed for that external product, so it does not quietly substitute the distinct local worker database or label cached audit values as live.
To understand the dated definitions first, read the forecast methodology and metric definitions. For SOL-specific availability and the external handoff, see the SOL forecast availability page.
Open the actual live forecast productNominal versus observed coverage
80% / 95%
Nominal 80% bands had 95% observed coverage in the dated snapshot; not 95% accuracy.
Evidence boundary
The retained September 10, 2026 audit evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows. Their observed target span is 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z; this is row-derived context, not a prespecified evaluation window.
The figures below are a dated audit snapshot, not a live feed. The retained rows support arithmetic for the displayed Brier and coverage values, but they are point-in-time API evidence rather than an immutable research dataset. The snapshot cannot establish profitability, statistical significance, non-overlapping holdout performance, or predictive superiority.
Data provenance and export status
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Citation-ready public export status: NOT READY. The retained historical evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows, with resolved horizon counts of 6h n=13, 12h n=12, 24h n=9, 48h n=6 and observed target span 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z. These are point-in-time observations, not an immutable issued-and-resolved archive, complete history, or prespecified evaluation window. A current public feed may expose rows, but it is not an immutable versioned research archive. Metrics calculated from a changing feed are not automatically comparable to this dated snapshot. A research export would need versioned records with forecast ID, asset and venue, UTC issue and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, scoring-rule version, and content hash. No research export is available from these pages.
The existing Dataset JSON-LD preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.