Public forecast documentation
SOL forecast history and provenance
Historical forecasts should preserve the prediction timestamp, target timestamp, value available at issue time, and later outcome without revision.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
A reproducible history needs immutable rows
A public export should include forecast ID, asset and venue, issued-at and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, and scoring-rule version.
The audit records a six-hour issue cadence and four horizons. The underlying sample start and end dates were not supplied, so this page does not invent a historical range.
| Metric | Observed | Reference | Careful interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction Brier score | 0.250491 | 0.25 for a constant 50% probability | Slightly worse than the no-skill 50% baseline; no demonstrated directional skill. |
| Nominal 80% band coverage | 95% | 80% nominal coverage | Higher coverage may indicate bands were overly wide; this is not 95% predictive accuracy. |
Data provenance and recommended public export
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Recommended source: a versioned, downloadable JSON and CSV dataset at the live product, with immutable issued and resolved rows, UTC timestamps, source venue, sample count n, scoring formulas, model version, and a content hash. The Dataset JSON-LD on this page preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.