Public forecast documentation
SOL forecast history and provenance
Historical forecasts should preserve the prediction timestamp, target timestamp, value available at issue time, and later outcome without revision.
Historical audit snapshot created 2026-09-10 — not a live/current forecast
A reproducible history needs immutable rows
A public export should include forecast ID, asset and venue, issued-at and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, and scoring-rule version.
The audit records a six-hour issue cadence and four horizons. Retained historical evidence contains 56 total rows and 40 resolved rows with an observed target span of 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z; that span is not a prespecified evaluation window or complete history. Read the forecast methodology definitions beside those provenance fields.
A completed outcome belongs in the resolved-forecast explanation, while the aggregate evidence and its limits belong on the forecast accuracy evidence page.
History evidence boundary
The retained September 10, 2026 audit evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows. Their observed target span is 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z; this is row-derived context, not a prespecified evaluation window.
The figures below are a dated audit snapshot, not a live feed. The retained rows support arithmetic for the displayed Brier and coverage values, but they are point-in-time API evidence rather than an immutable research dataset. The snapshot cannot establish profitability, statistical significance, non-overlapping holdout performance, or predictive superiority.
Data provenance and export status
The statistics shown here come only from the forecast audit snapshot created 2026-09-10. Current values remain on the external live product. The local scheduled-worker forecast table is a distinct implementation and is not represented as that external production feed.
Citation-ready public export status: NOT READY. The retained historical evidence contains 56 total SOL forecast rows and 40 resolved rows, with resolved horizon counts of 6h n=13, 12h n=12, 24h n=9, 48h n=6 and observed target span 2026-09-07T07:14:30Z–2026-09-10T10:59:20Z. These are point-in-time observations, not an immutable issued-and-resolved archive, complete history, or prespecified evaluation window. A current public feed may expose rows, but it is not an immutable versioned research archive. Metrics calculated from a changing feed are not automatically comparable to this dated snapshot. A research export would need versioned records with forecast ID, asset and venue, UTC issue and target timestamps, horizon, point prediction, interval bounds, direction probability, model version, outcome source, observed price, resolved-at time, scoring-rule version, and content hash. No research export is available from these pages.
The existing Dataset JSON-LD preserves the audit date rather than implying freshness.